Thomas Jones: 2008 Fantasy Sleeper

The Jets focused on upgrading their offensive line this offseason, and Thomas Jones will benefit greatly from it. Jones is coming off of an ugly two-touchdown season, which was due in most part because of the Jets’ offensive line problems. Jones saw 11 carries from inside the five last season, and that should not change. What should change is his production. With the opportunity to run behind Alan Faneca, Jones’ touchdowns will certainly go up this season. The Jets also signed Damien Woody to play right tackle. With the help of these two linemen, Jones is a fantasy sleeper.

Jones is old for an NFL running back at 30 years of age, but don’t let that fool you. Jones hardly started any games throughout his first four seasons. He was used in a platoon with either Michael Pittman and Marcel Shipp for most of his early career. He never had more than 140 carries in a season until 2004 with Chicago. He has 1659 carries in his career, which is much less than fellow 30+-year-old running backs Edgerrin James – 2849, Warrick Dunn – 2483, Fred Taylor – 2285, and Ahman Green – 1941. He has much less wear-and-tear on him than the average 30-year-old running back does, and he is known as a guy who lives in the weight room, so he should be able to carry the ball 300 times this season. Jones has only missed three games in the past four seasons due to injury.

You have to take into account his backfield competition. Running backs like Leon Washington and Jesse Chatman are not a threat to take away from the 310 carries Jones had last season. Washington will again be used as a change-of-pace back and a third-down back, but the Jets do not trust him as an every-down back. Neither of these guys poses much of a threat to steal goal line carries, either.

He can be grabbed at a good value in fantasy drafts. Yahoo! has him ranked as the 24th best running back. CBS Sportsline has him ranked as the 27th running back, and ESPN has him as the 23rd running back. Any back who will receive 300 carries behind an upgraded offensive line, and will get his team’s goal line carries needs to be considered a quality RB2 in most formats. With so many teams choosing to use a running back by committee, and with a good deal of uncertainty after the top five running backs or so, Jones should be valued higher than he actually is. Jones would be a good compliment to a risky RB1 with a high ceiling. Look for Jones to drop farther than he should on draft day, and be sure to pick him up as a sleeper with good upside.

For more fantasy football information, read Fantasy Football Tips.

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